Rising Mortgage Rates are Still Historically Low

Mortgage rates have recently surged creating quite some confusion. Don't be discouraged as current rates are still considered historically low....

Rising Mortgage Rates are Still Historically Low

While we have seen an uptick in interest rates during the past 30 days, we’re still in a historically low-interest-rate environment. If you have a mortgage rate above 5 percent, you may wish to lock in a lower rate before they increase.

The 30-year fixed mortgage is still 57 basis points lower than one year ago even though it has increased for four consecutive weeks, to an average of 3.17 percent. The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 2.46 percent while the five-year adjustable-rate mortgage averaged 3.20 percent.

These rates have been increasing slowly in conjunction with how the bond market has been accelerating since August 2020. Many factors play a role in rate movement – one being its close correlation to the 10-year treasury yield. There has only been an average of a 1.7-point spread between the two rates over the last five decades. The recent yield surge is an indication for forecasters that rates will continue to rise in 2021.

Experts suspect mortgage and refinance rates will continue to grow over the next 90 days.

“Our long-term view for mortgage rates in 2021 is higher, and they seem to be on course to move in that direction over the next 90 days,” says Realtor.com chief economist Danielle Hale. “As the economic outlook strengthens, thanks to progress against coronavirus and vaccines plus a dose of stimulus from the government, this pushes up expectations for economic growth and inflation, driving long-term bond rates higher.

And long-term Treasury bond rates are a key indicator for mortgage rates. The 10-year Treasury yield bottomed out in August 2020 and climbed back up to 1.18% in February 2021. “Mortgage rates have been coming back down while bond yields have been rising since they were never properly priced during this crisis. However, we are getting close to a traditional relationship with bonds and mortgage rates,” says HousingWire housing data analyst Logan Mohtashami. So going forward, that means rising long-term bond yields should drive mortgage rates higher.”

If you are considering locking in a lower rate, reach out to your lender or contact us for more information.